The mood swing from last week to now is not the one you might expect after a dominant rebound victory. Instead of renewed optimism, there's an air of reticent mortality. In one of the most absurdly football-crazy fan bases in the country, the news of Be Pelini's ambulance ride jolted the Husker faithful and reminded us all that there's a lot more than just football in life.
But enough philosiphizing, there's still 9 weeks of football and we wouldn't want to waste it contemplating our own transience.
(all rankings AP)
Nebraska
For what it's worth (not much), Nebraska peeked back into the top 25 this week, holding down the last spot. I have mixed feelings about the mere existence of a top 25 poll this early in the season, but nobody's asking me. It's nice to have the exposure, and the farther up the poll you start, the faster you climb at the end of the season when it matters.
It almost feels like the Huskers have any additional bye this week. Not only is Idaho State an FCS program, but they're a pretty darn awful FCS program with only 2 wins a year ago, and a loss already this year to the Air Force Academy in which they were down 35-0 at halftime. Air Force is a decent team, but triple option offenses don't often score 5 touchdowns in a half, so there's some pretty easy conclusions you can draw from that. The Bengals' biggest issue on defense is probably their size. The biggest dude on their defensive line is listed as 2 inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than center Justin Jackson, NU's smallest lineman. To run a 3-4 like the Bengals want, that size difference is going to hurt, especially against the run. That's probably going to be all that matters in this game as the Huskers should use Rex and Co. to go for at least 300 yards on the ground, only passing the ball enough to keep Taylor Martinez's arm fresh for Wisconsin.
On defense, the Huskers get a little bit more of a challenge. After running a gauntlet of spread offenses in the last 3 weeks, the not-quite-Blackshirts finish with a more Mike Leach style, Air Raid offense this week. The Bengals have thrown 121 passes in just two games this season averaging 443 yards in the two games. The wide receivers are a little light in the pants, but they have decent height, and the Bengals offense is predicated on spreading the field and hitting those receivers in whatever spot the defense is not. Sounds easy enough, but QB Kevin Yost is going to need time to feed those receivers, and like the d-line, the Bengals offensive line is probably a little too light to hold off the Nebraska pass rush for too long. The shotgun is going to be the Bengals best friend and it will be interesting to see what kind of pass rush the Huskers generate against another funky offensive system. I'm betting that it won't be too big an issue.
Obviously Nebraska can't afford to overlook the Bengals the way we did South Dakota State in 2010, but, this Idaho State team is not nearly as good as the Jackrabbits were. I think that the Bengals will get plenty of yards, but stall inside the 20's. Nebraska should have no trouble moving the ball on offense though, scoring at will is the order of the day. I'll take the Huskers 63-17 with plenty of playing time for the backups.
Big Ten
So here we are in week 4 and the Big Ten is for all intents and purposes, eliminated from the National Championship race. The best team in the league is not eligible for the postseason, and the Leaders division winner will likely have 2 or 3 conference losses. Good stuff.
Saturday:
#16 Ohio State vs UAB: Never say never, but I think that the Buckeyes will be motivated to improve on last week's poor showing against Cal. Ohio State is probably the best team in the Big Ten, but those annoying sanctions...I expect them to lose focus and choke away a game or two this season, but not this one.
Wisconsin vs UTEP: How bad is it going to get in Madison? Probably not bad enough to lose this one, but with a full-on QB controversy and mountains of negativity to go with all of the inexperience, you never know. The games are not going to come easy until the Badgers get their running game off the turf and pull together some semblance of a passing attack.
Iowa vs Central Michigan: I'll hedge this pick by saying that it's completely dependent on the Hawkeyes finding a RB that can stay healthy for more than a few snaps. I want Iowa to win 8 or 9 games this year, so the "rivalry" game is a little bit interesting at the end of the year, but the Hawkeyes really, really need to score more touchdowns before that can happen.
#21 Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan: The Fighting Irish exposed just how bad this Spartan offense can be when Le'Veon Bell can't get going, making the Michigan State offense look downright pathetic last Saturday. I don't expect Eastern Michigan to duplicate that success, and maybe the Spartans can get it figured out before facing Ohio State next week.
Northwestern vs South Dakota: After beating three Big 6 opponents (albeit not very good ones), the Wildcats get a breather with an FCS game. South Dakota is a pretty decent FCS program, but the Wildcats are kind of on a roll right now and I don't think the Fighting Sioux have the goods to pull off the upset. Top 25 for the Wildcats? It's a possibility.
Penn State vs Temple: Temple is one of the better teams in the MAC, but the Nittany Lions seem like they got a few things figured out on offense last week, and that defense is going to keep them in almost all of their games this year. Coach Bill O'Brien picked up his first victory, and I think that Penn State will be hungry for more. Pride is definitely a strong motivation for this team.
#18 Michigan at #11 Notre Dame: Denard Robinson owns the Irish. I think the Wolverines are far better equipped to handle the Irish's surprisingly dominant defense than Michigan State was. I think the Wolverines might give up a few more yards on defense, but I'll take Michigan offense in a shootout.
Minnesota vs Syracuse: The Orangemen have struggled so far this year, while the Gophers have looked pretty decent. I've been impressed with the Gophers so far this year and while they won't be confused for Legends division contenders, I think they've got the goods to win this game.
Illinois vs Louisiana Tech:
This is one of the better non-BCS conference teams, and Illinois is pretty inconsistent right now. La Tech scores lots of points, but they allow scores in bunches too. Illinois is still trying to make it work without QB Nathan Scheelhaase, and I don't like the Illini's chances in a shootout.
Top 25 rundown:
Bold print denotes winner
#1 Alabama vs Florida Atlantic
#2 LSU at Auburn
#3 Oregon vs #22 Arizona
#4 Florida State vs #10 Clemson
#5 Georgia vs Vanderbilt
#6 Oklahoma vs #15 Kansas State
#7 South Carolina vs Missouri
#8 West Virginia vs Maryland
#9 Stanford off
#11 Notre Dame vs #18 Michigan
#12 Texas off
#13 USC vs California
#14 Florida vs Kentucky
#16 Ohio State vs UAB
#17 TCU vs Virginia
#19 UCLA vs Oregon State
#20 Louisville at Florida International
#21 Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan
#23 Mississippi State vs Eastern Alabama
#24 Boise State vs BYU
#25 Nebraska vs Idaho State
Game of the Week: There's a few good ones this week, just not in Lincoln, NE. The biggest game this week is Florida State vs Clemson, but I think the best entertainment value will be Notre Dame vs Michigan.
3 Things you'll hear too much about:
* Florida State and Notre Dame being back
* Oregon vs Arizona
* Alabama's invincibility
3 Things you won't hear enough about:
* How overrated USC was (you can never hear enough about that)
* Northwestern's great start
* Oklahoma vs Kansas State
My Heisman top 5:
1.Geno Smith, West Virginia QB: Smith has as many TD passes as incompletions after two games. Do you know how crazy that is? We'll see if he keeps it up against better teams
2. Johnathan Franklin, UCLA RB: "Only" 168 total yards for the UCLA back this week, it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his production in the PAC-12 season
3. Braxton Miller, Ohio State QB: Miller is 99% of Ohio State's offense right now, luckily it's been enough for the Buckeye's so far
4. De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon RB: He's averaging 17 ypc and 14 yards per catch right now with 7 TDs, and he hasn't played much in the second half of the Duck's three games
5. Matt Barkley, USC QB: Yeah the loss hurts, but if the Trojans can win out with Barley performing even halfway decent, he'll get an invite to NY riding his preseason hype and probable draft status
More to Prove: Landry Jones, Marcus Lattimore, Sammy Watkins, Aaron Murray
Darkhorses: Denard Robinson, Collin Klein, Jarvis Jones, Rex Burkhead
Husker NFL MVP week 1:
Not a great week for former Huskers, as the teams with the most Huskers all lost. I'll give this one to Ndamukong Suh for his 3 tackles, 1.5 sacks and 1 TFL in the Lions' crushing defeat to my mighty 49ers.
That
wraps up this week's preview. Saturday is rapidly approaching and as soft as the Husker game should be, some decent highlights and an easy afternoon will make for a nice prelude to a really tough 5 game stretch.
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