It's been a really slow moving week so far; Husker losses have a tendency to do that. Obviously being a Husker fan, I've been on something of a emotional rollercoaster the last few weeks and being on the low side of that ride has made the week drag on. That and having to give a few hundred flu-shots. But Saturday is inexorably approaching, and that means a preview:
(all rankings AP)
Nebraska
Nebraska fell out of the top 25 this week (not that it matters yet), but fortunately not out of the national discussion; the only bad press is no press. The Corn-crazy masses are up in arms after the beatdown calling for Bo Pelini's head, questioning Taylor Martinez's ceiling, and universally bemoaning the defense. Personally, I'm over the whole visceral overreaction part and I'm totally ready to move on to Arkansas State.
Tim Beck and the offense should use this game to rebound from the atrocious 4th quarter against UCLA. If I'm Bo Pelini, I push hard to get Rex Burkhead to sit another game to make sure that knee is as close to 100% healed as possible. The Redwolves allowed 2 TDs and 293 yards to the Memphis defense, and more than 600 yards and 57 points to Oregon; if we need Rex we've got bigger problems. The Huskers should be able to run at will, and score enough points to outpace all but the very worst defensive performance.
The defense, on the other hand, has a much tougher task. Not only do the Redwolves have an elite offensive mind in Gus Mahlzahn, but they have enough talent (RB David Oku was a big recruiting target for NU a few years ago, but he chose Tennessee) to cause problems for our hapless linebackers. This is not a gimme game for this defense and I wouldn't be surprised if the stats don't show enough improvement to keep the trolls at bay. That being said, the only improvement I really care about is improved tackling, more turnovers and most importantly: fewer points on the board.
It will be interesting to see what happens this week. Pelini's teams are generally pretty good at bouncing back from a loss, a lot better than handling success as a matter of fact. I don't see how the offense doesn't improve against a weaker opponent and score at least 45 points. The defense is another matter. For all of the yards gained by UCLA last week, our defense kept them out of the endzone fairly well; it could have been so much worse. I'm seeing a 45-28 game, under/over of 7.
Big Ten
Yikes. Terrible week for the Big 10, a 6-6 record and 3 games dropped to PAC-12 schools. How bad was it? Other than Ohio State and Michigan State, the best looking teams in the league last weekend were Northwestern, Minnesota, and Indiana. I missed all sorts of picks last week, and it's almost enough to make me not want to make the predictions this week. Almost.
Saturday:
*denotes neutral site game
#12 Ohio State vs California: Can Ohio State salvage the league's pride by improving the league's record against the PAC-12? Yeah, if Braxton Miller can stay healthy. He shouldn't be getting 27 carries per game not matter how many RBs get hurt. Ohio State has to find someone to take the load off of the young QB to save him for the Big 10 schedule.
Minnesota vs Western Michigan: Western Michigan has already played a Big Ten team this season, losing 24-7 to Illinois, and the Broncos play at least one Big 10 member every year so there's no intimidation factor in this game. The big factor here is Minnesota's momentum. They finished last season pretty strong, and aside from the 3/OT win over UNLV, they've played well in two victories this year. I think the Gophers pick up their third win.
Illinois vs Charleson Southern: The Illini got steamrolled last week against a middle-of-the-road-at-best Arizona State without QB Nathan Scheelhaase, who is likely to return this week. The Big 10 really needs Illinois to win this game in a dominant fashion, to restore some conference prestige, and cover up the Illini's embarrassing performance last week.
Purdue vs Eastern Michigan: Purdue probably should have beaten Notre Dame last week, but I think the QB drama cost the Boilermakers precious focus, composure, and eventually the game. With QB Robert Marve out with yet another knee problem, Purdue has to settle for Caleb Terbush who is probably the better QB anyways. It shouldn't matter against a weak MAC school; if the Boilermakers can pull of a dominant win, they're right back in the Leader's division race.
#17 Michigan vs Massachusetts: Finally a breather for the Wolverines. Air Force's wacky triple option gave the Michigan defense fits last week, but UMass should pose no such threat. After the first two games, this is just what the doctor ordered for the Wolverines.
Northwestern vs Boston College: The Wildcats have proven me wrong two weeks in a row, so I'm finally jumping on the wagon. I think NW scores early and often, and gets enough stops on defense to get the win.
Penn State vs Navy: The strength of the Nittany Lions team is definitely its defense. If they can contain Navy's tricky offensive scheme, I think their anemic offense can score enough points to win-as long as they don't need a FG at the end of the game. I really hope they pull it off, these players deserve it for sticking around.
Iowa vs Northern Iowa: What's the best way to get over a disheartening loss? Schedule an FCS team to beat on to re-energize your program. Hopefully the Hawkeyes can at least double their TD output from the first two weeks (they've seen the endzone once).
#10 Michigan State vs #20 Notre Dame: Far and away the most important game of the Big 10 season so far. Michigan State is the only viable National Championship contender in the conference right now, and the whole conference needs them to win this one. Beyond the big picture though, this is a revenge game for the Spartans and their stellar defense should be able to carry them to victory so long as QB Andrew Maxwell can minimize the mistakes and capitalize on the presence of a legit Heisman RB in Le'Veon Bell. Notre Dame is not good enough to win this game, but Michigan State is entirely capable of losing it.
Indiana vs Ball State: Just when the Hoosiers get some momentum, they lose their starting QB Tre Roberson for the year. That's not a good thing for this young team and I think they drop a winnable game at home.
Wisconsin vs Utah State: With all of the turmoil in Madison this week, I like the sneaky-tough Aggies to steal one from the reeling Badgers. This is going to hurt the Big 10's credibility even more.
Top 25 rundown:
Bold print denotes winner
#1 Alabama at Arkansas
#2 USC at #21 Stanford
#3 LSU vs Idaho
#4 Oregon vs Tennessee Tech
#5 Oklahoma vs #15 Kansas State
#6 Florida State vs Wake Forest
#7 Georgia at Florida Atlantic
#8 South Carolina vs UAB
#9 West Virginia vs James Madison
#10 Michigan State vs #20 Notre Dame
#11 Clemson vs Furman
#12 Ohio State vs California
#13 Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh
#14 Texas at Ole Miss
#15 Kansas State at Oklahoma
#16 TCU at Kansas
#17 Michigan vs UMass
#18 Florida at #23 Tennessee
#19 Louisville vs North Carolina
#20 Notre Dame at Michigan State
#21 Stanford vs #2 USC
#22 UCLA vs Houston
#23 Tennessees vs Florida
#24 Arizona vs South Carolina State
#25 BYU at Utah
Game of the Week: On paper, this is a better week than last, but as we saw, great games can come out of no where. I think the Tennessee-Florida game is the best of the bunch though. Lots of hate, a good defense versus a good offense, and plenty of the SEC magic that makes good games great.
3 Things you'll hear too much about:
* The Big 10's image
* The coaching turnover at Wisconsin
* The Notre Dame-ACC-Big Ten love triangle
3 Things you won't hear enough about:
* Georgia
* Northwestern's great start
* Utah State
My Heisman top 5:
1. Matt Barkley: He's running on more hype than production, but he's done well so far
2. Geno Smith: This dude should pad his stats against another FCS team
3. Le'Veon Bell: He had a good game last week, but plays a big one against Notre Dame Saturday
4. Johnathan Franklin: Two consecutive 200 yd rushing games puts him on this list
5. Braxton Miller: The kids can run, but OSU's sanctions hurt his chances
More to Prove: Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson, Marcus Lattimore, Sammy Watkins
Darkhorses: De'Anthony Thomas, EJ Manuel, Denard Robinson, Marqise Lee, Collin Klein
Husker NFL MVP week 1:
This goes to Dejon Gomes of the Washington Redskins. Gomes notched 5 tackles, 1 PBU and an INT of Drew Brees that he returned 49 yards in the win over the Saints. Gomes was a bit overshadowed by Prince Amukamara at Nebraska, but he's a legit player at the next level.
That wraps up this week's preview. Once again, Saturday cannot come fast enough; hopefully it's a little easier on Husker fans this time around.
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