College Football Week 1

My goal is to do a weekly preview every Monday, but I have a pregnant wife and an 11 month old son, and a more-than-full-time job in the Army, so if it gets to be Tuesday or Wednesday, don't hate.  Every week should follow the same-ish format a la "The Forde Yard Dash" by my favorite college football writer, Pat Forde.  So here goes...

(all rankings AP)

Nebraska
Nebraska starts the season at #17.  Some polls have us lower, some have us higher.  I think this is about right.  I mentioned in my last post that I think Nebraska is capable of at least 10-2 and a Big 10 championship game appearance, but I completely understand why we are outside of the top 15 at this point.  There's little for Nebraska to hang its hat on from the 2011 season, and that is the biggest factor in preseason rankings.  Nebraska gets a chance to make a statement early with a matchup against returning Conference USA champ Southern Miss.  With a new QB and a rebuilt defense,  Southern Miss would have had a rough start to the year regardless, but add to the mix a first year head coach and the ridiculous plan to play 3 different QBs and it could be a rough season in Hattiesburg.  Nebraska is lucky to have the first shot at the Golden Eagles, while they still have some national buzz and name recognition form last year's success.  If this game were played in October, with the Eagle already holding 3 or 4 losses, it would not be as big a deal to beat the former CUSA champs, but in a week one lacking big games, Nebraska should raise a few eyebrows when they send Southern Miss home on the wrong side of a 42-10 beatdown.  Over/under: 7 points

Big Ten
Thursday night: 
Minnesota @ UNLV: I think the Gophers are better this year.  Good enough to beat a middle f the road Mountain West team on the road by 10 or so. 

Friday night:
#24 Boise State @ #13 Michigan State: Boise has made a habit of scheduling big games in week one and knocking off a good team on the road on National TV.  That being said, I don't think the Broncos have enough to beat an underrated Michigan State team.  It should be within a TD though, both teams are starting new QBs on a nationally televised Friday night game.  Might be an ugly night.

Saturday:
*denotes neutral site game
Northwestern @ Syracuse: I don't think the Wildcats have what it takes to beat an improving Syracuse team on the road.  Close game though.

Ohio @ Penn State: I'll always cheer for Frank Solich, and I just don't see Penn State maintaining the necessary focus to beat one of the best non-BCS teams this season.

Western Michigan @ Illinois: A good start to the Tim Beckman era.  Nothing overly impressive, but a solid debut.

Miami(OH) @ #18 Ohio State: Ohio State blows out a MAC team and it begins a month of Urban Meyer worship on ESPN leading up to what should be a humbling experience at the end of September when the Buckeyes travel to East Lansing.

Northern Illinois vs Iowa*: A Big Ten team schedules a MAC team in week one?  Yawn.  Next.

Eastern Kentucky @ Purdue: Many see Purdue as a dark horse in the Leaders division, with Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for the postseason.  It starts with stomping a weaker team at home.  Accomplish this, and let the chips fall.

Northern Iowa @ #12 Wisconsin: I am in the minority who think that Wisconsin takes a step back this year.  They lost too much on the coaching staff, and to the NFL not to be at least 3 games worse than last season.  Montee Ball is good, but running backs need help, and I don't think Wisky has it.  But we won't know this from week one; the Badgers should crush their FBS counterparts.

Indiana State @ Indiana: If Kevin Wilson wants to turn the hapless Hoosiers around, he can start by not embarrassing himself and his league in what should be a gimme game.

#8 Michigan vs #2 Alabama*: Far and away the game of the week.  Michigan surprised every one last year, but I see a step back this year.  I don't think Denard Robinson can be as magical against a Nick Saban defense.  I don't think Michigan's defensive line can handle the Tide's maulers.  And I don't think that Alabama will be stopped this year.  But Brady Hoke and the Wolverines surprised us once already, so nothing's impossible.  I'll still take the Tide by 10 or so.

Top 25 rundown: 
Bold print denotes winner 
#1 USC vs Hawaii
#2 Alabama vs #8 Michigan*
#3 LSU vs North Texas
#4 Oklahoma @ UTEP
#5 Oregon vs Arkansas State
#6 Georgia vs Buffalo
#7 Florida State vs Murray State
#9 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
#10 Arkansas vs Jacksonville State
#11 West Virginia vs Marshall
#12 Wisconsin vs Northern Iowa
#13 Michigan State vs #24 Boise State
#14 Clemson vs Auburn
#15 Texas vs Wyoming
#16 Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech
#17 Nebraska vs Southern Miss
#18 Ohio State vs Miami (OH)
#19 Oklahoma State vs Savannah State
#20 TCU off
#21 Stanford vs San Jose State
#22 Kansas State vs Missouri State
#23 Florida vs Bowling Green
#25 Louisville vs Kentucky

3 Things you'll hear too much about:
* Coaching changes at Ohio State, Penn State and Arkansas
* The impact of Tyrann Mathieu's dismissal
* Matt Barkley

3 Things you won't hear enough about: 
* Coaching changes at Washington State, Texas A&M and Wisconsin
* The impact of Erin Andrew's move to Fox (I'm seriously gonna miss her)
* Rex Burkhead

My Heisman top 5:
1. Matt Barkley: He'll make the trip to New York on preseason hype alone
2. Montee Ball: He'll fade pretty quick if the Badgers struggle like I think they will
3. Aaron Murray: He's been given the most glorious schedule an SEC QB could ask for
4. Denard Robinson: The Bama game is either a banana peel or a launch pad
5. Geno Smith: We'll see if the Mountaineer's can hang in the Big 12; as they go, Smith goes

More to Prove: Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson, Marcus Latttimore, Sammy Watkins
Darkhorses: Rex Burkhead, De'Anthony Thomas, Eddie Lacy, EJ Manuel

That's enough for now.  It's 3 days until kickoff and I and millions of other fans simply cannot wait.  I'll be back Sunday to do an After Action Review.