Sunday, October 28, 2012

Sunday Review: Michigan

With the huge variety of storylines that can be taken from Nebraska's big win yesterday, I'm going to follow Bo Pelini's lead and and stick with the 'Enjoy the win, but get ready for next week.' mantra.  This was undoubtedly the biggest win so far this year for the Huskers, but it won't mean much if we come out flat in East Lansing next Saturday.  Nebraska has to get back to the 0-0 mentality that they've shown the last 2 games and avoid the letdown.  Bo thinks the idea that Nebraska is 'in the driver's seat' in the Big Ten is a bunch of crap, but truthfully all Nebraska has to do is win out, and they're going to Indy in a month for a probable rematch with Wisconsin.  Finishing 10-2 would take a lot of sting out of some poor performances earlier this year, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. 
For now, let's just review:

Offensive MVP: RB Ameer Abdullah.  With Rex Burkhead on the sideline in sweats, Abdullah pounded out 24 carries for 109 yards and the game clinching TD in the fourth quarter with none of those pesky fumbles. Abdullah was shut down pretty well in the first half getting 21 yards on 8 carries, but he came alive in the second, grinding, twisting and juking for 5.5 yards per carry.  On his best run of the night, Abdullah sat behind C Justin Jackson on a long developing shotgun sweep that went 11 yards for the TD and put the game away.  Yeah, our best player is hurt, but there isn't a lot you don't like about Abdullah's relief work right now. 

Defensive MVP: LB Sean Fisher  After all of the injuries and junk he's been through, Fish played the game of his career last night, stuffing Fitz Toussaint pretty much every time he tried to get the edge.  7 tackles, 2 TFLs and decent work in coverage were a vindication of sorts for the senior.  If he's your doctor someday, ask him about tonight's game and you can be sure he'll remember it fondly.

Special Teams MVP: K/P Brett Maher.  It's been an up and down year for the senior from Kearney, but he was all 'up' last night.  3 field goals right down the center, including the rocket from 51 yards that would have been good from 61, and a solid 42 yard average on those funky rugby punts.  Minus the kickoff out of bounds, it was a great night for Maher. 

Freshman MVP: LB David Santos.  This is a long time coming, as we've heard so much about this redshirt freshman since he arrived last fall.  Santos finally showed us what the talk was about, racking up a team leading 10 tackles; 6 solo, and 1 TFL.  Santos fills holes well, hits ball carriers really hard, and he provides some of the speed we've been missing since Lavonte David graduated.  I don't know what took him so long to get on the field, but if he plays like he did last night, we shouldn't have to wonder any more.

Assistant Coach of the Game:  
Ross Els.  Nebraska's linebackers have been consistently inconsistent so far this season, but they had a marvelous game last night racking up 30 of the team's 71 tackles last night.  Other than a few moderate gains on some WR sweeps, Michigan had very little success running the ball, and the LBs got excellent penetration all night.  If this keeps up, Nebraska defense will be hard for any of the remaining opponents to pierce.

Play of the Game: Taylor Martinez's deep pass to Kenny Bell for the first TD in the second quarter.  Decent enough throw, great route by Bell, even better rub by Tim Marlowe to spring Bell loose, and a fantastic adjustment, catch, run, and leap by Bell for the TD.  Best WR in Nebraska history?  He's making a solid case right now.   

Play We Want Back: Martinez's interception to open the second half.  He was on the run and he had  Marlowe wide open for the third down conversion, but Martinez just didn't get the ball high enough, and it was tipped and picked.  It didn't end up hurting us because Russ Bellomy threw a pick 3 plays later, but if Nebraska had scored on the opening drive of the half, I don't think Michigan would have hung around so long.

I want to see more...
*Takeaways.  It was really nice to get the three picks off the freshman backup QB, but sadly enough, it doubled our total INTs for the season.  We need to take a little momentum from this week and get a lot more takeaways down the road.
*Taariq Allen.  Bo said his knee injury was pretty serious after the game, but here's hoping we see him on the field soon.
*Cam Meredith at DT.  Meredith has the strength to play the position, and it's worked fairly well two weeks in a row now.  Let's keep it going.
*Ending the game on the field.  Nebraska took the ball at their 20 yard line with 6:50 left in the game, and they ground out the final 7 minutes with a good mix of Imani Cross, Abdullah and Martinez on the ground.  Abdullah had an amazing twisting, lunging 3rd and 6 conversion around midfield, and Brady Hoke didn't bother calling his timeouts.  Martinez took a knee to kill the last 40 seconds showing that even in Tim Beck's fast paced offense, the Huskers can still eat some clock.
*Improved safety play.  Daimion Stafford and PJ Smith took a beating on and off the field at Ohio State, but they each got a pick last night, and showed well in coverage and against the run.  They won't be confused for Matt O'Hanlon and Larry Asante, but they're improving.
*QB pressure from the front four.  Asked after the game, Bo tried to deny that his front four were playing to keep Denard Robinson in the pocket, but it was clear that they had no intention of letting him slip out, even if it meant giving him 30 seconds to throw.  It worked okay, but it still rankles my inner Christian Peter to see such a conservative strategy.  Even after Robison left the game, Nebraska had to blitz to get any serious pressure.
*Martinez's toughness.  Taylor tweaked both ankles in the second and third quarters, but he kept coming, eventually breaking a 29 yard run in the fourth quarter that set up Abdullah's 11 yard TD.  For all his faults, he's every bit as tough as Eric Crouch and Scott Frost were.
*Eric Martin.  The Caveman had another sack, 2 TFLs, a batted pass and a QB hit last night.  He's so much better at rushing the passer than every other defender the Huskers have, that I don't expect him to leave the field at Michigan State next week.  Martin eats pocket QBs for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

I want to see less...
*Turnovers.  2 more yesterday, both by Martinez (though he looked like he was down on the fumble), and both within a few minutes of each other.  Key difference this game: 0 points off turnovers for Michigan.  I don't know what it will take for Martinez to stop putting the ball on the ground, but he needs to figure out in a hurry.
*Shallow kickoffs.  I'm not sure why Maher was kicking shallow, but Michigan was close to breaking a few returns, and it seemed like they always started at their 30.
*Penalties.  8 for 105 yards.  That looks much worse than it was, as at least half were questionable at best.  The targeting penalty on Josh Mitchell was beyond ridiculous, ditto on the pass interference in the endzone on Andrew Green.  At least the refs were consistent, the hit out of bounds on Martinez was far from egregious, but the refs flagged Michigan 15 yards anyway.  Poor calls aside, Nebraska needs to be a little more disciplined in the weeks to come, we don't need future refs to look for calls based on reputation.
*Unblocked defenders.  I remember 5 or 6 plays getting wrecked last night because a LB or DE wasn't touched getting into the backfield.  Those sort of plays kill drives.
*Time of possession for the opponent.  Take away the 4th quarter, and Michigan held the ball for 28:03 compared to 16:57 for Nebraska.  I appreciate the Husker's fast paced offense, but that's too long for a defense to be on the field in most games.  The Huskers have to do better than 4/12 on third down.
*Fair catches on punts.  Abdullah didn't seem like he was even trying to make a return, which might have been wise given his fumbling struggles.  I realize I'm being a bit greedy, but I want ball security AND long returns.
*Snapping issues.  Justin Jackson was chucking 'em high all night, and if not for Taylor's good hands, we'd have lost a couple.  LS PJ Mangieri put his first snap at Maher's ankles, but Brett managed to get the punt off.  That's gotta get fixed.
*Dropped passes.  It hasn't been a huge issue this year, but last night Kyler Reed dropped a TD pass that was admittedly a little low.  Jamal Turner let another TD pass get lost in the lights and sail past his face.  It didn't hurt us last night, but I don't want to see any more.
*Field goals.  3 trips to the red zone and only 1 TD?  Laaaame.  If I'm Tim Beck, I'd like to pound the ball in from the 4, but he clearly doesn't have as much confidence as he should in his power game.  Once again, it hasn't been as big a problem this year, but I don't want to see it again.
*Joe Ganz's pink hat.  C'mon dude. 

Armchair head coach:
If I'm Brady Hoke (and I'd have to gain 70 pounds to be even close), I would have been in Al Borges' ear to make him find a running game.  The Wolverines had some early success attacking the perimeter on some WR jet sweeps, but once Denard was hurt they mostly stuck to attacking the middle to no avail.  A redshirt freshman QB with precious little game experience gets thrust into a big game at Memorial Stadium at night with no running game?  There's no way that ends any differently than it did.

Hit of the Game:
This one's easy: Baker Steinkuhler for his seemingly innocuous tackle that put Denard Robinson out of the game.  I won't go so far as to say that we won because Robinson was hurt, but it made things a whole lot easier.  There's a cautionary tale here for Husker fans, how would our offense respond if Martinez couldn't come back into a game?

Jennifer's Take (my wife doesn't know much about football, but she still has opinions)
"OK it's over, turn it to the World Series!"
Being from Fresno, Jennifer is a huge Giants fan and she spent the whole game watching the World Series gamecast on espn.com. 

Keeping an eye on the rest of the college football world...
*Alabama looks pretty darn invincible.  I don't see anyone beating them this year outside of an epic choke in Baton Rouge or the SEC title game.
*I watched most of the Florida-Georgia game, and it looked like both teams indulged in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party before the game.  It was ridiculously sloppy.  On a sidenote: if you hate the way Bo Pelini can go off on a player, watch Georgia DC Todd Grantham some time.  He almost beheaded a Georgia player after a dumb penalty.    
*Kansas State has scored 50 points in back to back games against top 15 teams.  Collin Klein has 11 TDs in those games.  Only an epic choke keeps them out of the National Championship game.
*If you haven't seen Oregon's De'Anthony Thomas return a punt 73 yards vs Colorado watch it now.  That was cool.  You think Scott Frost enjoys putting 56 on Colorado at halftime?
*Notre Dame just won't be beat.  It's never pretty, but it's always a W.  Makes me sick.
*Can we stop talking about Matt Barkley now?  Without Marqise Lee, he's barely an average QB.
*If you wonder why the Big East doesn't get any love in the polls, just look at Rutgers' 12 point loss to Kent State at home.
*I feel sorry for Frank Solich losing to Miami (OH), but that's what happens when you don't put winnable games away early.
*Carl Pelini's FAU Owls got a nice win over Troy yesterday.
*Penn State is the latest to fall victim to the Braxton Miller bug.  Actually, Ohio State's defense did the most damage to the Nittany Lions; Matt McGloin has definitely hit his ceiling.
*After losing at home to Michigan State, Wisconsin faces an unexpectedly big game at Indiana next week.  If the Badgers lose that game, they'll need to beat Ohio State or Penn State to clinch the Leaders division.
*Don't ignore Northwestern in the Legends.  If the Huskers stumble twice, the Wildcats can sneak in if they win out.  

Song of the Game
"Everything is Alright" by Motion City Soundtrack

"I used to rely on self-medication,
I guess I still do that from time to time.
But I'm getting better at fighting the future,
"Someday you'll be fine.."
Yes, I'll be just fine.

Tell me that you're alright,
Yeah everything is alright.
Oh please tell me that you're alright,
Yeah everything is alright."

If only for another week, everything is still alright in Lincoln, NE.

Beer of the Game 
Red Hook ESB by Red Hook Brewing Company, Portsmouth, ME


If you're looking for a beer that's smoother than a porter, but bolder than a brown ale, you want a classic British Extra Special Bitter.  Red Hook's attempt at an ESB is very drinkable, but still full-flavored and delicious.  At 7 bucks for a 6 pack, it's easy on the wallet too.

Best Commercial
Not a lot of good ones to choose from until this gem from Sportscenter in the 4th quarter.  Matt Stafford is not a funny guy, but he sells this one well enough.

Last thought
I just saw Alfonzo Dennard get his first NFL interception.  It's nice to see him work through his off field issues to contribute at the next level.

Anyways, I will argue to the death with anyone who thinks this win was cheapened by Michigan's loss of Denard Robinson.  Nebraska's best player sat on the sidelines all night, and the Huskers managed to get it done without him.  As many hits as Denard Robinson takes, it's really inexcusable for the Michigan coaches not to have a reliable backup.
In any event.  Nebraska sits atop the Legends division with a tie breaker over 2nd place Michigan and 3rd place Northwestern.  Typically, this is where Bo's teams manage to choke away a game or two.  Michigan State is more than capable of causing that choke, as are Minnesota, Penn State or Iowa.  Nebraska absolutely has to stay composed and focus on winning every game left on the schedule.  Even if they manage to limp into Indy after dropping another game, the torches and pitchforks are going to be at Bo's door, Nebraska simply must win out.
Good thing we're 0-0 going into this weekend.



Sunday, October 21, 2012

Sunday Review: Northwestern

Immediately following yesterday's game, Bo Pelini aptly summarized the contest as "Good for TV, not for the heart." in an interview with Maria Brown.  
Now that everyone's blood pressure has had a chance to normalize, let's all take a moment to forget everything else that happened in yesterday's game and just admire the Husker's gumption in finding a way to win a road game that had no business being that close.  Ready?  Okay, go...
Now that that's out of the way, yikes.  What the heck was all that about?  Why do these Huskers insist on trying to lose a game for three and a half quarters before squeaking out a win?  How can we play so brilliantly most of the game and so poorly in small patches that lead to opponents carving out big gains and tons of points?  That 'C' word that we've been waiting for, the consistency that the program desperately needs, still eludes us, and I fear that even though Bo made a step in the right direction towards his "Win out." proclamation, we're just being set up for a disappointment next week versus Michigan.
But that's still a week off, let's keep plugging with the review:

Offensive MVP: WR Quincy Enunwa.  Kenny Bell is still the teams' best receiver, but it was Enunwa who got the offense fired up with 4 key grabs late in the 4th quarter.  Big time performance by the junior: 6 catches for 110 yards, setting up both of Nebraska's last 2 TDs with clutch receptions including the beautiful 31 yard grab that set up Taariq Allen's TD catch.   

Defensive MVP: CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste.  Yes, he got beat on a 26 yard TD pass right before halftime, but SJB was picked on all afternoon, and he rewarded the Northwestern QBs with 5 pass break-ups for their trouble.  Sure he dropped an interception, but so did practically everyone else in the back 7.  This was a great performance by one of the biggest corners in college football.

Special Teams MVP: Northwestern P Brandon Williams.  No his 38 yard average wasn't great, but his wobbly punts were muffed twice, and twice took ridiculous bounces and died inside Nebraska's 10 yard line.  And you can't ask for more from your punter than to flip the field and pin the other team at their own 24 with 4 minutes left, clinging to a 5 point lead. 

Freshman MVP: WR Taariq Allen.  Allen's contributions this year have mostly been limited to blocking when Enunwa needed a break, but the redshirt freshman made an outstanding 8 yard grab above his head in the corner of the endzone to pull the Huskers within 5 points.  If you're going to have 1 catch for 8 yards in a game, it might as well look like that one.

Assistant Coach of the Game:  
Rich Fisher.  Nebraska's wide receivers made some terrific catches, some nice yards after catch, and did a solid job blocking on the perimeter.  The wide receivers were a liability 2 years ago with plenty of poorly run routes and dropped passes.  Under Fisher's guidance, they're the strongest position group on the team.   

Play of the Game: Taylor Martinez's magnificent laser to Ben Cotton for the go ahead score.  After all that went wrong yesterday, the 7 yard perfectly placed pass to the middle of the end zone was a breath of fresh air to Husker fans everywhere.      

Play We Want Back: Ameer Abdullah's muffed punt.  Nebraska's first turnover came right after the Cats had gone 3 and out, and instead of a chance to build on a great start defensively, the Huskers fall behind 7-3 after NW quickly moved the 15 yards to score the go-ahead TD.  To have any chance of making Bo's "Win out." proclamation a reality, the Huskers have to stop giving away points.

I want to see more...
*Takeaways.  This is going to remain a bullet point until the Huskers do something on defense to affect that horrendous -12 turnover margin.  PJ Smith twice dropped interceptions that he had two hands on, at least 1 of SJB's pass break-ups should have been picked, and let's not forget Daimion Stafford's ridiculous personal foul that negated Ben Cotton's recovery of a NW muffed punt.  I want to see somebody, anybody step up and make a play.
*Points.  Teams that roll up a balanced 543 yards of offense (201 rushing, 342 passing) should probably get more than 4 TDs and a field goal.  Nebraska gained 108 yards per score, which means that the poor field position, penalties and lack of third down conversions left a lot of points on the field.  That's gotta improve in a hurry.   
*3rd down success.  Holding your opponent to 5/20 on third down is great.  Converting 3/14 of your own is disgusting.  Failing to convert a bunch of third and shorts is even worse.
*LB David Santos.  Not a perfect game from the freshman by any means, but his tackle for loss was sweet and he was usually in good position.  I like his speed compared to Alonzo Whaley.
*Eric Martin's improvement against the run.  This was the most complete game I've seen from the senior.  He didn't get any sacks, but he got decent pressure, and more importantly, he stuck his arms out and nabbed NW's ball carriers several times as they burst through the line.
*Imani Cross and Braylon Heard.  If Rex is going to be hurt, I'd like to see these two spell Abdullah more than they did.  Heard is a fantastic North/South runner, and Cross is too talented to be wasted on the sideline.
*Kenny Bell.  The skinny kid from Boulder, CO did some great work yesterday.  6 catches, a TD, a 50 yard kick return (negated by a penalty of course), a timely tip that turned a touchback into a punt downed at the 1, and several key blocks including a nice chip block that helped protect Brett Maher on his last punt .  He did enough to make up for the muffed punt. 
*Clap and snap.  Martinez took a page out of Braxton Millers' handbook with this funky snap count, and you can't argue with zero false starts.
*Press coverage by the corners.  This aggressive sort of coverage opens the defense up to deep balls and penalties, but it was an absolute nightmare for Northwestern's short passing game.  If we could just get a good pass rush...
*Red on the Road.  Really Husker fans?  You can only fill 50% of the opponents stadium?  Pathetic.
*Big smiles on Bo's face.  Bo had a priceless expression after NW missed that field goal; relief, joy and pride replaced the usual detached grimace.  It's a good look on him.   

I want to see less...
*Busted plays.  The difference between a good defense and a great defense is that great defenses don't allow big plays like the 80 yard run by Venric Mark in the third quarter.  Santos, and Stafford were both caught up in the middle of the field and couldn't compensate for Mark's speed.  Credit the Husker defense for manning up instead of folding like they did against Ohio State, but two of NW's TDs came on big, busted plays, and that needs to change quick with Denard Robinson coming to town next week.
*Turnovers.   3 more yesterday.  And two throws in a row that should have been picked before Enunwa's long catch.  I don't know what this staff is or isn't telling their players, but it's not working.
*Short fields for opponents.  The Cats scored from 15 yards out, and from midfield after muffed punts.  That disturbing trend needs to stop.
*Sustained drives by opponents.  Northwestern had a good march to start the 4th quarter, converting 2 third downs, and a 4th and inches to put the Cats up 28-16.  That could have been a backbreaker.
*Offensive meltdowns.  You know the one I'm talking about.  Beginning of the 4th quarter, Martinez is sacked twice in a row, but on third down he escapes, makes a nice throw and forces a pass interference for the first down.  But Seung Hoon Choi was too far downfield and the penalties offset.  Then there's a sideline interference penalty that makes 3rd and 19.  No problem, Martinez escapes and makes another nice throw to Turner to convert, but Jeremiah Sirles was lined up a foot too far back making 3rd and 24.  Martinez can't convert this one and Nebraska was forced to punt.  The ghost of Shawn Watson came back to haunt us.
*Players without names on their jerseys.  The roster says #36 is Eddie Ridder.  I've never heard of him, but he did a good job getting downfield to stop Tony Jones, who had just fumbled Maher's punt with 8 seconds left.

Armchair head coach:
I'm all for aggressive play, but I probably would have taken a chance at the field goal instead of going for a 4th and 3.  It would have made an 8 point game midway through the 3rd quarter, instead a confusion in the blocking scheme had Kyler Reed running into the pulling guard, resulting in a 10 yard loss.
I'm not as against the 2 pt conversion try, as some fan are, but in retrospect it probably was a little early to chase those points. 
Both plays would look daring and cavalier if they'd have worked.

Hit of the Game:
This award goes to Ciante Evans who jammed Kain Colter just enough to get him to drop a late 4th quarter pass on 3rd and 4.  The three and out gave Nebraska the ball back with plenty of time to run down the field.  The ESPN announcers thought Evans should have been called for pass interference, but it was typical of the aggressive play by the Nebraska corners yesterday.

Jennifer's Take (my wife doesn't know much about football, but she still has opinions)
"They need to play the whole game like they did the second half."
Yep.

Keeping an eye on the rest of the college football world...
*Alabama, Florida, Oregon, and Kansas State all get enormously impressive wins this weekend, and are a clear top 4.  We'll see how it shakes out, but if Oregon and Kansas State win out, it'll be another controversy in December.
*While we're on the subject of the Wildcats, my Heisman top 5 looks like this: 1. Collin Klein; 2-5. Not even close.
*Lots of relieved faces in church this morning as Georgia squeaked out a win at Kentucky.  That would have been a tough one for Mark Richt to explain.
*Ohio State was lucky to escape two weeks in a row against inferior teams.  Purdue finally made them pay for their reliance on Braxton Miller by knocking the QB out late in the third quarter, and only a late collapse kept the Boilers from getting back in the Leaders race.  Wisconsin can likely clinch the Leaders with a win over Michigan State next week.
*Speaking of the Spartans, they've got to be the best 4 loss team out there.  That defense is too good for their offense to be so bad.
*Michigan is on a roll coming into Lincoln, but it will be interesting to see what kind of success they have against the best offense they've seen so far.
*Bill O'Brien is everyone's pick for Coach of the Year because he's done so much with so little.  Penn State might be the toughest game remaining on Nebraska's schedule.
*The rest of the Big Ten is hardly worth writing about, Indiana lost their one of thier last winnable games to Navy, Illinois lost to BYE (kidding...kind of), and Iowa and Minnesota keep playing down to their skill level.
*Carl Pelini's Florida Atlantic team lost a heartbreaker in 2OT to Southern Alabama.  The battle continues uphill for him.
*Southern Miss is 0-7 after getting blasted 59-24 by Marshall.

Song of the Game
"Breakdown" by Tom Petty

"It's all right if you love me
It's all right if you don't
I'm not afraid of you running away
Honey, I get the feeling you won't

There is no sense in pretending
Your eyes give you away
Something inside you is feeling like I do
We've said all there is to say

Baby breakdown
Go ahead and give it to me
Breakdown honey take me through the night
Breakdown now I'm standin' here can't you see
Breakdown it's all right
It's all right
It's all right
Breakdown"

Tom Petty is right, we Husker fans could run away, but we won't.  Husker fans filled Northwestern's little stadium, survived several Husker breakdowns, and were treated to an exciting, if a little disappointing, back and forth football game. 

Beer of the Game 
Georgia Brown Ale by SweetWater Brewing Co., Atlanta, GA

I wish it hadn't taken me so long to try this fantastic local brown ale.  I judge all brown ales against the Newcastle standard, and Sweetwater exceeds that standard.  Easy to drink, and a little bit sweeter than most brown ales, the Georgia Brown Ale stills retains the warmth you'd expect from a darker beer and finishes clean.  I'm not sure how widely available it is outside of Georgia, but if you see it in a store somewhere, it's definitely worth the money.

Best Commercial
I guess this Fiat Abarth spot is an older commercial, but it's still pretty funny.  By the way, it's a total coincidence that all of my best commercial awards go to the ones with pretty girls.  Total coincidence.

Last thought
A win is a win.  I said that after the Wisconsin game and it's no less true after the sloppy showing in Evanston.  In any event, it's one down and five to go. 
Michigan rolls into town with all sorts of momentum and another mobile quarterback.  And by mobile quarterback, I mean the best pure running quarterback maybe ever.  Denard Robinson is simply magical on the run, and the Huskers need to play the game of their lives to shut him down or outscore him at home.  It's possible, but it will require a much cleaner game than the Huskers have played recently.  Oh, and it will likely decide the Legends winner.  No pressure.


Sunday, October 14, 2012

Sunday Review: The Bye Week

It's nice to take a week off.  The Huskers get a break after the "Clobbering in Colombus" and the time was put to use 'getting back to fundamentals' and healing both body and mind after a bipolar first half to the season.  The Huskers are in the midst of the toughest stretch of any team in the Big Ten with games at Northwestern, vs Michigan, at Michigan State, and home against Penn State.  The Huskers better have got their rest this week, because there is a long grinding stretch ahead with different challenges every week, and nothing remotely resembling a 'gimme' the rest of the season.  The two losses really hurt Nebraska's confidence, but every game the rest of the way is winnable, and the Huskers are still in the driver's seat in the Legends division.  Bo set the standard with his "win out" statement after the loss at Ohio State, and though the Huskers might not need to do that with all of the chaos in the Big Ten this year, it would certainly be nice, and it might make the fanbase forget the early season struggles for a bit.  Before we start that journey though, let's review the season so far:

Offensive MVP: Kenny Bell, WR.  I give Bell this award for his consistency.  A reliable receiver whether we need a short, mid-range, or long reception, Bell has also improved his blocking, and overall strength, getting some tough Yards After Catch already this season.  The most impressive thing about Bell's game this year might be the way he's held onto the ball while taking some hard shots.  Certain quarterbacks on this team could learn a lesson from Bell.
Honorable Mention: Ameer Abdullah, RB

Defensive MVP: Josh Mitchell, CB.  Week in and week out, Mitchell has probably been Nebraska's most consistent defender.  He's been good in coverage, but I think his most endearing asset is that despite his size, he's been the best tackler on the team through 6 games.  When I think of Mitchell, I think the play in the 3rd quarter versus Wisconsin, with Nebraska down 17 points, Mitchell comes screaming in on a corner blitz, throws all 155 pounds of his 5'10 frame, and smacks 210lb Montee Ball down for a 3 yard loss.  That's an MVP type play that the Husker linebackers could learn from.
Honorable Mention: Eric Martin, DE

Special Teams MVP: Ameer Abdullah, KR/PR.  Fumbles aside, Abdullah has been a consistent threat whenever he gets the ball in his hands on the return.  His punt return for a TD against Idaho State was nice, but I really liked his long return against Ohio State (even though he was tackled by the punter).  Nebraska will need a few more of those down the stretch.
Honorable Mention: Brett Maher K/P

Freshman MVP: Andy Janovich, FB.  Some would argue that Imani Cross deserves this award, but I'm giving it to the walk-on from Gretna for working into the starting line-up and playing fairly clean in the time he's been given.  If you like what Janovich has shown so far, then you have to be excited for what the future holds for the freshman.
Honorable Mention: Imani Cross, RB

Play of the Year: Taylor Martinez's 92 yard sprint at UCLA.  It sucks to have lost, but this was vintage T-Magic and it put Nebraska up for a bit in this game. 
Honorable Mention: Martinez's 42 yard TD pass to Kenny Bell vs Arkansas State

Play we want back: Taylor Martinez sacked in the endzone for a safety at UCLA.  The Bruins broke the tie with this play as Martinez made a horrible read and had no room to improvise as he was devoured by the Bruin DE.  Nebraska's defense couldn't stop a statue at the Rose Bowl that night, and the offensive mistakes ended up spelling doom for the Big Red's chances.
Dis-Honorable Mention: Braxton Miller's 72 yard second quarter run in Columbus.  

I want to see more...
*Consistency.  In every phase of the game; in the coaching, in the execution, and in the week to week performance, this program is starving for any semblance of consistency.  Roller coasters are only fun if the ride ends before you lose your lunch.
*Defensive heart.  As bad as the execution has been this year, the defense hasn't shown a lot of motivation in losses to Ohio State and UCLA.  In wins over Arkansas State and Wisconsin, you saw plenty of fire, but it was fleeting at best in the two losses, and in the opener against Southern Miss.  Somebody, anybody needs to get these boys fired up and keep them fired up.
*Defensive performance.  Are the coaches putting them in the wrong position or are the players failing to execute?  Wherever the blame falls, it needs to be fixed in a hurry with tough games every week from here on.
*Takeaways.  This defense has only 9 so far on the season, and I can't think of a single one that could be considered a game-changer.  The Huskers are 109th in the country in turnover margin and unless that improves fairly drastically, the next six weeks are gonna be pretty rough 
*Offensive consistency.  For all of the yards, points, and big plays I don't think there's too many fans who are absolutely comfortable with the offense right now.  Turnovers, penalties, and head-scratching play calls keep this offensive attack from being among the greatest in the country.
*Rex Burkhead.  He missed the better part of the first 3 games, and then missed most of the second half against Ohio State.  If Rex isn't injured, I don't think the Huskers lose to UCLA.  Rex played a valuable role in the comeback against Wisconsin, and in the first half at Ohio State and he's been more explosive in limited time this year.  In this six week stretch run, Tim Beck would be wise to lean on the senior from Plano, TX.
*Power Running: Tim Beck gets too cute sometimes, and though it's worked for some nice plays, it's also resulted in backbreaking turnovers and sacks.  Beck has a powerful offensive line, a deep running back corps, and a soft defense.  It's time to chew some clock, grind out some drives, and keep the opposing offenses on the sideline.

I want to see less...
*Turnovers.  The biggest reason the Huskers rank in near the bottom of the nation in turnover margin, and the biggest reason they're not 6-0, is that the offense has put the ball on the turf 17 times, losing 10 fumbles and thrown another 5 INTs.  Martinez alone has turned the ball over 5 times in two Big Ten games and both Wisconsin and Ohio State were particularly adept at turning those mistakes into points.  This absolutely must stop if the Huskers want to win any of the next six games.
*Despair.  Both the fan base and the team seem to get down easily, and things just snowball.  This in on Pelini and his staff, as they're responsible for keeping the team on an even keel.
*Helplessness against mobile QBs.  Both Brett Hundley and Braxton Miller abused the Nebraska defense, scrambling for big yards, and taking advantage of the safeties creeping up to hit big play-action passes.  Poor tackling and poor containment have led to big gains, 2 losses, and embarrassing stats against mobile QBs and with Kain Colter, Denard Robinson, and MarQuies Gray still on the schedule, the problem isn't going away. 
*Road struggles.  The Huskers are as bad on the road this year as they were in losses to Wisconsin and Michigan last year, and with big games at Northwestern, Michigan State and Iowa still to play, we really need some of the road magic the Huskers showed in 2010 when they beat Washington, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State on the road. 
*Swiss cheese defensive line.  The Huskers are 93rd in the nation against the run in large part because they get so little production from their front four.  Opposing offensive lines generally push the line of scrimmage forward 3 yards, and on the few plays the ends and tackles get any penetration, they've showed an annoying tendency to miss tackles.  Something needs to change here.

Armchair head coach:
If I'm Bo Pelini this week, I would make some drastic changes to the defensive scheme because nothing he's done this year has been overly effective against a good mobile quarterback.  The 3-4 look the Huskers have toyed with already this season deserves a long look, and it might be worth it to go back to the 1-5-5 look the Huskers employed with success against Michigan State last season.  The talent on this defense is not on the defensive line, so it makes sense to drop Eric Martin back with the linebackers and using him to spy these mobile QBs.  Something fundamental is wrong with this defense, and it's on Bo to swallow his pride and change his game.
Bo might also try to rein in Tim Beck a little bit.  I know the offense is the strength of the team, but they've been just as harmful to Nebraska's defense with turnovers and three and outs as they are to the opposing defense.  Beck needs to stop trying to out-scheme everyone, and just let his offense run the ball down the other team's throat.   

Hit of the season: This goes to Alonzo Whaley for his 4th down stop against Wisconsin.  I like Whaley's determination, fighting through some rough patches in his career, and he's rewarded with a career defining stop to ice the game against the Badgers.

Jennifer's Take (my wife doesn't know much about football, but she still has opinions:
"Taylor Martinez needs to stop throwing like a girl.  And I hope Rex Burkhead gets better soon." 

Song of the Week:
"Carry On" by fun.

"If you're lost and alone
Or you're sinking like a stone
Carry on
May your past be the sound
Of your feet upon the ground
Carry on"

The Huskers certainly are lost right now, but there's nothing a six game win streak wouldn't fix.  All things considered, the only thing the Huskers really can do right now is carry on.

Beer of the Week:
Caguama Cerveza by Cerveceria la Constancia, San Salvador, El Salvador




I was making fajitas this week, and went to the store to grab some Corona (Mexican food needs Mexican beer), and saw the turtle and thought "What the heck, it's a little cheaper."  There's a reason for that.  Caguama tries really hard to taste like Corona, but it ends up tasting like the cheap knock-off that it is.  Throw in a lime wedge, and it's a little easier to swallow, but you're better off just paying another 2 bucks for a six of Corona.

Commercial of the Week:
Maybe its because my son looks so much like the e-trade baby, but I really like e-trade commercials and this one is no exception.

Final Thought:
I'm really glad that the bye week is over.  The negativity and despair that are swirling around the program need an outlet, and the only outlet is another game.  I'll admit that I really like Bo Pelini, and it makes me cringe to see his team struggle because I thought he would have more success here at Nebraska.  Bo needs to circle the wagons with his team shut out all of the negativity, and focus his efforts toward beating Northwestern    Northwestern is a pretty good team, but there's no reason they should beat Nebraska, even with all of the defensive struggles.  This is one of the most important six game stretches in Nebraska football history.  The whole trajectory of the program are riding on Bo meeting the standard he set to "win out."


 

Monday, October 8, 2012

Coastal Cornhusker Rankings: Week 7

Well that was a crazy weekend.  Husker game aside, this was one of the best weeks of college football that I can remember, and there's plenty of movement in the rankings this week.  Let's get after it:

Top 25:
AP Rank in parentheses
#1 Alabama (1)
#2 Oregon (2)
#3 South Carolina (3)
#4 Florida (4)
#5 Kansas State (6)
#6 Notre Dame (7)
#7 West Virginia (5)
#8 Ohio State (8)
#9 LSU (9)
#10 Oklahoma (13)
#11 Florida State (12)
#12 USC (11)
#13 Clemson (16)
#14 Georgia (14)
#15 Oregon State (10)
#16 Stanford (17)
#17 Texas (15)
#18 Mississippi State (19)
#19 Cincinnatti (21)
#20 Rutgers (20)
#21 Louisville (18)
#22 Louisiana Tech (23)
#23 Iowa State (NR)
#24 Boise State (24)
#25 Michigan (25)

*Alabama and Oregon both have minefields to navigate, but they appear to be the two best teams by far right now
*South Carolina goes to LSU this week and Florida next week, if they emerge from that gauntlet unscathed and they'll probably jump to #2
*Florida skyrockets up the polls while Georgia freefalls, this is a good year for the SEC East after being dominated by the SEC West recently
*Florida State is penalized for their loss more than LSU because of the nature of the opponent, but the 'Noles will have a much easier time climbing back into the top 5
*USC and Oklahoma quietly creep back up the rankings
*TCU falls from the polls after they were dominated at home by Iowa State
*Louisiana Tech is the leading contender to bust the BCS, especially if they beat Texas A&M this week and move to 6-0
*Michigan is the only two loss team here, because their two losses are to two top 10 teams; one was close, the other not so much.  Denard Robinson will always look great against anything but the best defenses in the country



Big Ten:

Legends:
1. Michigan (3-2, 1-0)
2. Iowa (3-2, 1-0)
3. Northwestern (5-1, 1-1)
4. Michigan State (4-2, 1-1)
5. Nebraska (4-2, 1-1)
6. Minnesota (4-1, 0-1)

Leaders:
1. Ohio State (6-0, 2-0)
2. Penn State (4-2, 2-0)
3. Wisconsin (4-2, 1-1)
4. Purdue (3-2, 0-1)
5. Indiana (2-3, 0-2)
6. Illinois (2-4, 0-2)

Power Rankings:
1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes put an emphatic stamp on this ranking in the Horseshoe last weekend.  Braxton Miller is the Big Ten's only Heisman contender left standing and for what it's worth, the Buckeyes are the only undefeated team in the conference. 

2. Michigan: I give them the edge over Penn State because of the talent differential.  The Wolverines were hurt by the losses to Alabama and Notre Dame, but they demolished Purdue on the road and now carry the torch for the Legends division. 

3. Penn State: This team is figuring it out at the right time.  They don't have a lot of talent, but they play harder than any team I've seen this year and you have to give it to Bill O'Brien, he's squeezing every last drop of ability he can out of his offense.

4. Nebraska: As bad as it got in Columbus Saturday night, the Huskers still possess more than enough ammunition to win this league, but can Bo swallow his pride and make the necessary bye week adjustments to get his defense on track?

5. Wisconsin: The Badgers looked good in their beat down of Illinois, and with Purdue's struggles, they're the clear frontrunner in the Leaders division.  The Badgers can't afford any more chokes if they want to control their destiny.

6. Northwestern: The Wildcats couldn't hang late in their game with Penn State and the bubble finally popped on their perfect season.  The Wildcats remain a darkhorse in the Legends race, but they're capable of surprises, ask Nebraska.

7. Michigan State: Credit the Spartans for the comeback, but there was no reason for them to be trailing lowly Indiana at any point of the game.  Things are kinda shaky in East Lansing right now and it will be interesting to see how those things shake out.

8. Purdue: The Boilermakers were pathetic Saturday allowing Denard Robinson to dance all over them to the tune of 235 yards, and failing to score against the soft Michigan defense.  The Boilermakers can't afford any more breakdowns if they want to go to Indy.

9. Iowa: The Hawkeyes come off the bye week and get a struggling Michigan State team in East Lansing.  If Kirk Ferentz can pull off the upset, he just might salvage the pieces of a broken season.

10. Indiana: The Hoosiers get off the bottom with their strong showing against Michigan State last Saturday.  The win would have been nice, but if the Hoosiers can parlay the momentum into a strong performance against Ohio State...there's a reason they call these letdown games.

11. Minnesota: The Gophers were off last week, and will try to catch Northwestern in a funk from their loss at Penn State.

12. Illinois: You couldn't write a worse opening act for new coach Tim Beckman.  It get worse with a trip to Michigan this week. 







Sunday, October 7, 2012

Sunday Review: Ohio State

So...that sucked.  After the first quarter, I had that pleasant sense of surprised optimism.  At halftime, that turned into cautious optimism that the Huskers could turn it around, and after the punt return for a TD in the 3rd quarter, that turned to "Oh no, not again."  I'm not going to join the growing throng calling for Bo's head, but I confess, I'm getting pretty gosh darned tired of this.  I didn't think the Huskers had a great shot of winning going into this game, but for the love of Grant Wistrom, what in the heck is going on with this defense?  After Braxton Miller's 70 yarder in the second quarter, the wheels came off this defense and the Huskers didn't stop the Buckeyes again until a late, meaningless fumble in the fourth quarter.  Thank goodness for the bye week, because the Huskers' season is only half over, and Bo backed himself into an unrelenting corner when he made his "We gotta win out." declaration in the post game.  Bless his soul for the optimism, but if the Huskers can't figure out how to stop a mobile QB, then wins at Northwestern, and versus Michigan will be asking a lot.

On with the review:

Offensive MVP: Who else? Ohio State QB Braxton Miller.  The sophomore survived an ugly start, and was nearly unstoppable from the second quarter on.  186 yards, and a TD rushing, 127 yards and a TD passing, and more pertinently for this game: no turnovers.  He played himself into Heisman consideration last night.  

Defensive MVP: Ohio State CB Bradley Roby.  Roby tied Ben Cotton as Taylor Martinez's third leading receiver last night.  Credit Roby for being in the right spots, but Martinez threw two incredibly ugly balls right to him last night.  And who knows how the game might have been changed without his pick six in the first quarter?  Does Nebraska go up 17-0?  24-0?  Hard to say.

Special Teams MVP: Ohio State PR Philly Brown.  Nebraska was only trailing 11 points when they punted away to Brown early in the 3rd quarter.  Brown passed through the first wave of defenders nearly untouched and turned on the jets down the sideline to put the dagger in the Huskers' heart. 

Freshman MVP: FB Andy Janovich.  The true freshman walk-on from Gretna gets the nod for his overall strong play last night, and for the lack of competition for this award.  Janovich made some good blocks, and had a 5 yard catch.  There's a bright future for Janovich if he can continue to progress within Tim Beck's system.

Assistant Coach of the Game:  
This goes to Ron Brown.  Rex Burkhead had a career long 73 yd run, and 119 yards on the ground yesterday.  Braylon Heard, Ameer Abdullah, and Imani Cross added 73 yards and 2 TDs and there were no fumbles from the running backs.  This loss can't be put on Brown's outstanding running back corps, as they often had to make their own holes.

Play of the Game: Taylor Martinez's pinball 9 yard TD run in the second quarter was not only really sweet, but it briefly put the Huskers up 24-21 with halftime approaching.  For all of Martinez's flaws last night, you have to give him props for this nice TD run right after a false start penalty.

Play We Want Back: Braxton Miller's 70 yard run in the second quarter was a sign of things to come for the Husker defense.  After such a dominant first quarter, you felt like Miller needed to do something amazing to break open the game, and he did.  After cutting into the middle, it looked like Alonzo Whaley and PJ Smith had Miller contained for about a 7 yard gain, but Miller cut right, faking Whaley out of his jock strap, and outsprinted the whole defense down the sideline until Ciante Evans tracked him down at about the 5.  The defense never recovered their confidence and were lit up time and again by Miller, Carlos Hyde and the TE seam routes.

I want to see more...
*3-4 sets.  Nebraska doesn't have 4 good D-linemen right now, and even though we don't have the best personnel for a 3-4, the two or three times we ran it last night, it seemed like it was always a negative play for the Buckeyes, except for the time at the beginning of the 4th when Eric Martin missed a sack and let Miller escape for a third down conversion.
*Corner blitzes.  They worked in the first quarter, but after Miller's long run, Nebraska was too fixated on Miller to try anything fancy.  Not that that fixation helped at all.
*Want-to from the defense.  Especially on that last TD, the Huskers gave up and went through the motions in the second half.  They better get that figured out during the bye week.
*Imani Cross.  I think the freshman could have blown through some of those tight holes better than Nebraska's other backs, but he didn't get a chance until the last play of the game.
*Play action out of the Diamond-Bone formation.  That sweep to Braylon Heard worked great the first time, but when Nebraska tried again, Ohio State ate it up.  The play action scored 3 or 4 TDs for us last year, but we haven't seen it yet this season.
*Goal line creativity.  Letting Rex take the snap was a nice wrinkle, and it worked twice, but Beck should have tried a pass the third time, as the Buckeyes D ate it up.    
*Pass interference calls go our way.  The Buckeyes were pretty...physical with the Nebraska receivers last night and in my opinion, it there were at least 4 or 5 pass interference calls that the refs missed.  Bo seemed to agree with me. 
*Kyler Reed.  Where the heck was the senior TE?  He's too talented to be off the stat sheet.
*Performance by the tackles.  Buckeye DE John Simon had his way with Jeremiah Sirles and Brent Qvale to the tune of 2 sacks and 5 TFLs.  Andrew Rodriguez had several flags against him, and there wasn't a lot of running room on the edges most times.  Barney Cotton better light a fire under these guys next game.

I want to see less...
*Gashing runs.  Nebraska couldn't stop a QB counter to save their lives last night, and as soon as they started keying on Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde was getting 6-10 yards per rush.  A lot of people are comparing last night's performance to a Cosgrove defense.  Seems about right.
*Alonzo Whaley and Sean Fisher against the spread.  Yeah, they both played outstanding against Wisconsin, but as soon as the Buckeyes put that third receiver on the field, Whaley and Fisher became huge liabilities because they aren't fast enough to cover the perimeters.  I thought that was a lesson we learned against UCLA, but I guess not.
*TE's busting our seams.  I counted three play action passes to TEs in the middle of the field that went for a total of 85 yards and a TD.  Good job holding Buckeye WRs to 3 catches for 35 yards, but you can't forget the TEs in today's game. 
*T-Muggle.  Martinez reverted to his old self last night, no more so than on his last interception, a floater off his back foot when he was under almost no pressure.  He did a serviceable job running the ball, but he took bad sacks, including another sack-strip, threw three atrocious interceptions, and did nothing to rally his teammates as the mistakes snowballed.  Martinez is likely to break all sorts of records this season, but he won't endear himself to any fans' memory with more performances like this. 
*Rex Burkhead on the sideline.  Not his fault, but this offense isn't the same without Rex.  Get well soon Superman.
*Three and outs.  This is becoming a weekly theme.  I counted 4 three and outs, while Ohio State had one after the first quarter. 
*Turnovers.  Another weekly gripe.  There's really no excuse for it at this point; all 4 can be directly attributed to Martinez.  He needs to be held accountable for his bonehead plays.  On the defensive side, we need to figure something out to get more than 1 meaningless fumble per game.  It would be funny if it weren't so sad.


Armchair head coach:
Late in the 1st half, Nebraska gets the ball down 28-24 with 3 minutes left.  We're getting the ball back to start the 3rd quarter, but it would be nice to get another score to grab some halftime momentum.  Penalties on the kickoff put Nebraska at the 10, and instead of using the power game to get out of the shadow of their own endzone, Beck dials up a zone read, and Martinez fumbles when he's hit at the line of scrimmage.  Cotton recovers, but a 3 yard run by Burkhead, and a 2 yard swing pass to Burkhead make it a quick three and out, forcing Brett Maher to punt from the back of the endzone, and give Miller a minute and a half to score another TD that gives the Buckeyes an 11 point lead at halftime.  That sequence doomed the Huskers as much as any in this shootout.

Hit of the Game:
Freshman Charles Jackson set the tone on the opening kickoff, chopping down the Buckeye returner at the 15.  Too bad Ohio State changed the tune later...

Jennifer's Take (my wife doesn't know much about football, but she still has opinions)
"Why can't they ever just lose, why do they have to suck so bad?"
We're all wondering that.

Song of the Game
"Shattered" by the Rolling Stones

"Don't you know the crime rate is going up, up, up, up, up
To live in this town you must be tough, tough, tough, tough, tough!
You got rats on the west side
Bed bugs uptown
What a mess this towns in tatters Ive been shattered
My brains been battered, splattered all over Manhattan"

Mick said it all. 

Beer of the Game 
Nimbus Brown Ale by Nimbus Brewing Company, Tucson, AZ
 


I discovered an amazing liquor store in Savannah that has, conservatively speaking, at least 650,000 different beers on their shelves.  I kinda threw a mental dart with my eyes closed and picked this beer.  I judge brown ales with Newcastle as my baseline, and this one falls a little short.  Too earthy, and lacking Newcastle's sweetness, Nimbus isn't terrible but I won't get it again.  Hopefully we can say the same about Nebraska's performance.


Best Commercial
There's so much to love about Marisa Miller's Buick commercial.  Marisa Miller's in it, it's kinda funny, Marisa Miller's in it... 

Last thought
The season isn't over.  The optimist in me wants to say "Hey, take away the three interceptions and the punt return for a TD and Nebraska is right in this game."  But the cynical side of me can only connect the dots with the games at Wisconsin and Michigan last season and conclude that Bo needs to try something radical with his game plans against mobile QBs, because he's just not getting it done.  We're going into the most important bye week in quite some time.  Bo needs to show his new boss that he can hold it all together and win a division title.  His teams are usually at their best when they're in the corner.  Time will tell.


Around the Nation: Quick Takes Oct 7

Great week of football with several surprises.  Let's get right into the rundown:  

#2 Oregon 52, #23 Washington 21
No surprises here, just Oregon doing what Oregon does.  Year in and year out, the Ducks are outrageously explosive on offense and good enough on defense to let their offense outrun their opponents.  Coach Chip Kelly moves to 40-6 in his 3 1/2 years in Eugene, with 2 of those losses  coming in the Rose Bowl and the BCS National Championship game.  That's just silly.  

North Carolina State 17, #3 Florida State 16
Wait, what?  Yeah this happened.  The Wolfpack converted two 4th downs on their game winning drive, including the go ahead TD, erasing a 16-0 halftime deficit and pulling off the biggest upset of the year so far.  The same EJ Manuel who was so good in 5 wins this year, was 17/29 passing for 1 TD and 1 INT.   Manuel was sacked and hit the entire second half, and finished with -16 yards rushing.  This is probably the end of Florida State's national title hopes, as there just isn't enough strength of schedule left to climb back into the polls unless they can shock Florida in Gainesvile. 

#10 Florida 14, #4 LSU 6
LSU gets a lot of credit for their physicality and toughness, but the Gators played magnificently at home, knocking the Tigers around and sending about a dozen of their players to the sidelines with injury.  If not for some untimely turnovers, I think Florida wins this game at least 17-3, if not more.  Les Miles needs a new offensive gameplan, because if you can stop the Tigers' rushing attack, and Florida only allowed the Tigers 43 yards, LSU becomes completely useless on offense, and relies on their defense and special teams to get points, which didn't happen yesterday.

#6 South Carolina 35, #5 Georgia 7
Gamecock QB Connor Shaw might just be the best QB in the SEC after lighting up the Dawgs for 240 total yards and 3 TDs.  RB Marcus Lattimore also fueled his Heisman hype after rushing for 109 yards and a TD as the Gamecocks blasted the Bulldogs in Columbia.  Georgia QB Aaron Murray was held to 11/31 passing for 109 yards and an INT in the loss, and only a late cosmetic TD prevented the goose egg for the Bulldogs.  With Florida's win over LSU, the SEC East may come down the the Gator's tilt with South Carolina in two weeks.

#7 Kansas State 56, Kansas 16
Kansas hung around in the first half, but they were never really in this game.  K-State woke up in the second half and blew the Jayhawks away, finishing with 346 rushing yards.  QB Collin Klein and RB John Hubert both finished the game over 100 yards, and both averaged better than 10 yards per rush.  Decent warm up game for the Wildcats, they get a good looking Iowa State team next week.

#8 West Virginia 48, #11 Texas 45
Playing against the best defense they've seen by far, Geno Smith was nearly as awesome as he's been all year, throwing for 268 yards and 4 TDs, but the real MVP in this game was RB Andrew Bule who gashed the Longhorns for 207 yards and 2 TDs.  The Mountaineers actually improved on defense holding Texas to a little over 400 yards at home (and only 45 points!), and forced QB Nick Ash to try keeping pace with Geno Smith without a lot of help from his ground game.  With the ubiquitous nature of the spread offenses in the Texas high schools that fill his roster, I wonder why Mack Brown is so insistent on mimicking Alabama's run-first power game?  It certainly hasn't worked for the Longhorns as they endure the worst 3 year run in recent memory

#9 Notre Dame 41, Miami (FL) 3
The latest version of Catholics vs Convicts was hardly as stirring as the 1988 classic.  Nothing secret about how Brian Kelly has turned the Irish around: strong defense (285 total yds allowed), strong rushing attack (346 total yds) and mistake-free football (0 turnovers, 4 penalties).  As much as it pains me to say it, I've been really impressed with Notre Dame's composure winning consecutive games over Michigan State, Michigan, and Miami.  If they keep it up, the Nov 24th game at USC could be for a BCS title berth.  That will make for a loathsome offseason of hearing how great the Irish are.  Ick.

#13 USC 38, Utah 28  
Matt Barkley redeemed himself a little bit with a 303 yard,  3 TD performance, but he was again outshined by his receiver Marqise Lee who caught 12 balls for 192 yards and a TD.  14 penalties and 2 turnovers are a concern for the Trojans, but at this point, the Trojans just need to be happy with the win, and circle the Nov. 3rd game with Oregon as their best chance to win back respect in the polls.

#14 Oregon State 19, Washington State 6
Hmmph.  I'm still not overly impressed with the Beavers, but they did well to hold Mike Leach's Cougars to 227 total yards and force 5 turnovers (4 INTs).  Lots of people are jumping on the Beaver Bandwagon, but I won't ride until the Beavers can beat a bad team by more than a couple scores. 

#15 Clemson 47, Georgia Tech 31
Defense appears to be optional in Clemson as the Tigers allowed Georgia Tech's tricky triple option attack to roll up 339 yards and lead 31-30 in the fourth quarter.  Luckily, Clemson can score on anyone eventually, and QB Tajh Boyd was able to shake off two INTs to throw for 397 yards and the go ahead TD in the fourth.  Clemson is a dangerous team, but they're not true contenders until they start getting a better return on their pricey investment in defensive coordinator Brent Venables.

Iowa State 37, #15 TCU 23
Down 30-23 with 8 minutes left, the Frogs appeared to have momentum after stuffing the Cyloclones on a three and out, but on third down, Iowa State DE David Irving did his best Ndamukong Suh impression, batting a pass into the air, intercepting it, and returning the INT 21 yards for a TD, pushing the Cyclone lead to two TDs and deflating the Frogs for good.  Does this upset happen if TCU's starting QB Casey Pachall wasn't suspended for a DWI?  Doesn't matter.  He was, and Paul Rhoads gets yet another program defining upset on the road.

#17 Oklahoma 41, Texas Tech 20
Lots of talk this week about how this Texas Tech team turned a corner under third year coach Tommy Tuberville, and how the Sooners were in deep trouble with the trip to Lubbock.  Well, it was all for naught as the Sooners rode a strong defensive performance to victory on the road, and it churns up a little momentum for the Red River Rivalry game next week.  Bob Stoops doesn't have a National Title caliber team right now, but he's got enough to beat anyone in the Big 12 on a given Saturday. 

#18 Stanford 54, Arizona 48 F/OT
The Oregon game aside, Arizona has successfully translated Rich Rodriguez's spread offense into big yards and points all season long.  Unfortunately, the defensive woes that sunk Rodriguez at Michigan have come back to bite him in Tucson.  Stanford ran up 618 yards on the Wildcats and came back from 2 TDs down in the fourth to prevent their second straight loss.  The Cardinal have plenty of work to do, but the win matters more than the ugliness right now.

#20 Mississippi State 27, Kentucky 14
Not a great performance by the Bulldogs, but against Kentucky, that's good enough.  If the Bulldogs want to truly get out of the SEC West cellar, they need to win at least 2 of their next three games against Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, and Alabama.  If the Bulldogs win all three, they're in the running for a trip to Atlanta in December.

#22 Rutgers 19, Connecticut 3  
The Scarlet Knights are looking to make some noise in the Big East, and snatching 4 picks, including a 25 yard pick six, from the Huskies helped offset a poor offensive performance.  It's a three team race with Cincinnati, and Louisville right now in the Big East and if Rutgers wants to take the crown, they need to get better than 280 total yards and 13 points from their offense.

Penn State 39, #24 Northwestern 28
Leading 28-17 going into the 4th quarter, the Wildcats gave up 3 unanswered TDs in the final period, and the Nittany Lions celebrated coach Bill O'Brien's first win over a ranked opponent.  I like this Nittany Lions team, they play fantastic defense (the three TDs by the Wildcats notwithstanding) and have an offense that grinds out wins with heart and determination.  O'Brien will have plenty of success here if he sticks around.

California 43, #25 UCLA 17
Cal didn't necessarily shut down the Bruin's explosive offense, they simply used that offense to their advantage, stealing 6 turnovers and parlaying them into touchdowns to put the Bruins away.  A lot of people were ready to anoint the Bruins after they beat Nebraska, but an ugly loss at Oregon State, and the loss last night prove that the Bruins were probably more lucky than good in that game.  Or maybe Nebraska is that bad...

Michigan State 31 Indiana 27 
The Hoosiers discovered the Achilles heel to this Spartan defense: no huddle offenses that play sideline to sideline.  The Spartans gave up almost 200 yards in just the first quarter, before waking up in the second half and roaring back to steal a road win from the Big Ten's worst team.  If Mark Dantonio was unhappy after letting Ohio State off the hook, he has to be furious after his team nearly blew their whole season Saturday afternoon.  After a game against Iowa next week, the Spartans enter a critical 3 game stretch at Michigan and Wisconsin, then against Nebraska.  Michigan State fans can't be too optimistic about those games right now.

Wisconsin 31 Illinois 14
Solid win for the Badgers, as they rebound from the heartbreaker in Lincoln.  The Badgers needed a strong win to re-establish themselves as the favorite in a wide open Leaders division, and they didn't disappoint at home.  The Illini scored first, but then not again until the game was long decided in the 4th quarter.  Taking a 10-7 lead into the 4th quarter, Wisconsin scored 3 TDs in the fourth, putting the game away on a 19 yard run by Montee Ball with 3 minutes left.  The season hasn't gone as planned for the Badgers, but their goals are still in front of them.

Michigan 44 Purdue 13
Denard Robinson rushes for 235 yards, the Wolverine defense shows signs of life, and now Michigan looks like the best team in the Legends division after Nebraska gets blown out, and Michigan State struggles at Indiana.  It was a good performance by the Wolverines, but I'll admit that I'm surprised and disappointed in the Boilermakers who played well below their talent level in the loss.  Now Wisconsin looks like the most likely team to win the Leaders division with a third place finish behind ineligible Ohio State and Penn State.

Boise State 40 Southern Miss 14
The Golden Eagles start the year 0-5 after getting slaughtered at home by the Broncos.  On the bright side, the quarterback competition appears to be down to 2 guys after the Eagles were rotating 3 in their first 5 games.  Boise State was outyarded 424-310, but managed to put down Southern Miss with the help of 5 turnovers and a 23-0 halftime lead.  The Broncos have been hovering outside of the top 25, but they should re-enter the polls after the dominant showing.

Arkansas State 34 Florida International 20
The Red Wolves played a pretty strong game against their Sun Belt foe, racking up 421 total yards with a good balance of run and pass and moving to 3-3 on the year.  Western Kentucky looks like the class of the Sun Belt, but with Gus Mahzahn at the helm, Arkansas State is capable of making a solid run, which is a nice bump for Nebraska's strength of schedule.

Ohio 38 Buffalo 31
Clearly, the MAC is not going to roll over and let Frank Solich and Ohio roll through the conference unimpeded.  Luckily for the Bobcats, that win over Penn State is looking better every week, and as long as Ohio doesn't lose any of these close games, they still have a chance to get a BCS bowl if they get enough help.  They need to stop allowing 500 yards to weak teams though.



Friday, October 5, 2012

Mission Brief: Ohio State

Here's a pregame rundown for Nebraska's sixth game of the season written in Army Op-Order format:

Situation:
Forget the second biggest comeback victory in school history, for the second week in a row the focus in the Husker program is on the athletic director, with the hiring of former Miami AD Shane Eichorst on Thursday.  There's talk of ruffled feathers with Tom Osborne and Bo Pelini feeling like they weren't adequately involved in the hire.  Whether or not that is true, Chancellor Harvey Perlman maintains that it was his decision, and he's going to run with it.  This whole drama seems pretty silly with such a big game this week.  What was the hurry? The announcement could have waited until next week which is not only a bye week, but also would have allowed Eichorst to be present for the announcement.  Was it too much trouble to ask Bo for a little input?  Was this some sort of power move by a chancellor who was growing resentful of Osborne's influence at the University?  I don't know, but the whole thing is a big fat distraction; not just for the new AD who probably just wants to do his job, but for the athletic department as a whole that just wants to train and win games.  Interesting to see how well-focused the football team comes out tomorrow night if indeed Bo is cheesed with his bosses.

Ohio State on the other hand, looks like a team that is coming together.  With a hard-fought, come from behind win over Michigan State last week, the Buckeyes picked up their best win of the year. and the talk out of Columbus is that the team has come together in a surprising way in Urban Meyer's first year.  Revenge is on the mind of the Buckeyes after Nebraska hurt Braxton Miller and stole the game in Lincoln last season, and Husker fans can expect a not so nice welcome from the team some fans call the "Texas of the Big Ten."  With little to distract the team, the Buckeyes are confident, and a few players started talking a bit of trash ahead of the game this weekend.  I don't personally have any problem with that, but it's not always a great idea to give your opponent extra motivation.     

Mission:
Going in as underdogs on the road to a top 15 opponent, Nebraska just needs to win.  Style and stats mean nothing at this point, survival is all that matters.

Execution:
The biggest test of the season so far will reveal more about the Huskers than any other game yet.  Can the Huskers handle the distractions on the road and back home?  Will the team rebound from their road struggles at UCLA as they enter a stretch of 3 road games?  It will be interesting to see.
Earlier in the week I implied that the Huskers will have to rely almost entirely on Taylor Martinez's arm to win this game.  I want to back off that comment a little bit.  Sure the Buckeyes dominated Michigan State's pathetic offense, but Nebraska poses a far tougher challenge than the Spartans.  Michigan State relies on almost enitrely on RB Le'Veon Bell, and he really doesn't have a lot of help; Ohio State focused on stopping Bell and shut down the whole offense.  On the other hand, Nebraska has talent all over the field, and the Buckeyes would not be wise to focus solely on stopping Rex Burkhead lest they get burned by any number of the impressive athletes in Nebraska's offensive arsenal.  I still think that Nebraska will need a strong passing attack to win, but balance will be important.
Defensively though, there's no reason to focus on anyone but QB Braxton Miller.  More than 70% of Ohio State's offense has been a direct result of his efforts, and Michigan State held the Buckeyes to their lowest numbers of the season last week, coming close to shutting Miller down.  Unfortunately, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades (5 meters is close enough for a grenade, FYI), and Sparty lost because their own offense was unable to capitalize on the defense's outstanding performance.  If the Huskers manage to mimic that performance, I don't see the same outcome.  The defensive line needs to play the game of their lives, contain Miller in the pocket, and the linebackers have to hit and wrap up far better than they did against UCLA.  If the Huskers can keep the Buckeyes under 24 points, I like our chances to win this game.

Service and Support:
Aside from WR Tim Marlowe, there aren't really any injuries of note this week, Nebraska should be nearly full strength for the Buckeyes.
The defensive backfield, sure to be tested by Miller's deep throws tomorrow, must again adapt to a spread offense, which means more nickel, and more Ciante Evans.  That's a good thing as Evans has been one of the most consistent performers on the defensive side.
Thad Randle is listed as the starting DT next to Baker Steinkuhler.  I don't think Randle has finished a game yet this year with his bum knee, so expect to see plenty of Chase Rome, Kevin Williams, and Aaron Curry.  
The already strong WR corps got another boost last week with Kyler Reed in the slot on a few plays, including his TD catch.  That's a nice little wrinkle that gives the Buckeye's weak secondary plenty of mismatch worries.
Speaking of mismatches, the diamond formation made a comeback last week.  If I remember correctly, Nebraska scored 4 or 5 TDs out of that formation last year, including a long TD pass to Quincy Enunwa versus Ohio State.  I would expect Tim Beck to bust it out on the Buckeyes once or twice tomorrow night. 

Command and Signal:
In Nebraska's last road game at UCLA in the Rose Bowl, there didn't appear to be any issues getting plays in from the sideline on either side of the ball.  That might be a bigger issue in the Horseshoe since we can't expect Husker fans to outnumber the Buckeye fans like they did at the Rose Bowl. 
Bo's teams performed very well on the road in his first 3 years, but last season, and again at UCLA this year, turnovers, penalties, poor kicking and mental lapses have doomed the Huskers and resulted in a 2-3 record.  Can Bo's team handle the pressure of being the frontrunner in the Big Ten?  We're about to find out.  Going 2-0 against Ohio State would be a nice feather in his cap for the rest of the season.

Final thoughts:
I still don't feel like Nebraska is going to win this game.  The Huskers' prior performances against mobile quarterbacks is just too poor, and Miller is easily the best one the Huskers have seen since Tyrod Taylor or Colt McCoy.  That's not to say the Huskers are incapable of pulling off the upset, I just think it will take a performance of a lifetime from this defense.


Wednesday, October 3, 2012

College Football Week 6 Preview

Quiet week compared to last.  Could it be that the Huskers are settling into a groove after last weeks' close call?  A win this week would prove it.  That cold mistress Consistency is the biggest missing ingredient for Bo Pelini's program, and this weekend is a perfect opportunity to grab hold of it.  Win against the Buckeyes on the road, and the Huskers might have turned a corner.  Lose, and the same old questions pop up.  Big test this week for the Huskers.
Overall, this is one of the best weeks of college football I can remember.  #4 vs #10, #5 vs #6, #8 vs #11, #12 vs #21, #4 vs #23 and a whole bunch of important conference games.  This is set to be one heckuva Saturday, and I'm going to be parked on the couch all afternoon. 

(all rankings AP)

Nebraska 
I re-watched the Wisconsin game on the Big Ten Network's football, and let me tell you, it looks a lot better for the Huskers with all of the between snap drama taken out.  Yes, Nebraska played sloppy,  yes there were too many fumbles, missed throws, and clogged running lanes, and yes the first 35 minutes mostly sucked, especially for the offense, but those last 25 minutes were about as pretty as you could ask for.  Nebraska showed it's ability to weather an early storm, come back strong and beat a team into submission.  That's encouraging, as another stronger team waits in Columbus.

Nebraska desperately needs Taylor Martinez to be sharp passing this week since the most glaring weakness for this Ohio State team has been through the air.  Ohio State gives up an average of 276 yards per game passing, and Martinez should look to move that number North of 300.  The Buckeyes have been strong against the run, so this might be a game in which the Huskers set up the run with the pass instead of vice versa.  As much as it might pain the fan base, Rex Burkhead and Co. might need to take a backseat to Kenny Bell & Quincy Enunwa Inc.  Oh, and it would be nice if we scored more TDs instead of field goals against a team like Ohio State.

This game is going to turn on the Blackshirts.  If they can contain Braxton Miller (contain, not shut down, that's asking too much) then Nebraska has a real chance to win this game.  Miller accounts for more than 70% of the Ohio State offense, and the Buckeyes would be in a world of hurt if he got injured like last year in Lincoln.  But we can't count on that.  The Husker defense needs to come out hot, make tackles, contain Miller in the pocket as much as possible, and for the love of Charlie McBride, force a turnover or two.


The Huskers go into this game as underdogs on the road, and that's typically where the Huskers play their best ball.  I'm tempted to pick a Husker win, but it just doesn't feel right.  I just can't trust the game to Martinez's arm.  Lightning doesn't strike twice, and I think Miller plays the whole game and lights up the Huskers like he did in the first half last season.  Buckeyes by 10 or so.
 
Big Ten  

Like I said last week, now that the conference slates are under way, the Big 10 bashing has abated a little bit.  That will continue to diminish if Ohio State and Nebraska put on a good show, and Northwestern continues its improbable run.  The conference really needs Nebraska to eke out a win in Columbus to keep the Huskers in the top 25, and they need Michigan State and Michigan to get back in the win column as well.  The Big 10's season isn't lost, but it could use a boost.

Saturday:
#24 Northwestern at Penn State: This will be the biggest test for the upstart Wildcats, but it's a game they are capable winning.  If the Northwestern defense shows up to play, then the Wildcat offense should be able to outpace the Nittany Lion's improved bunch.  This should be a good game.

Michigan State at Indiana: After games against Ohio State and Notre Dame, this is a welcome gimme game for the Spartans.  Still, the Spartans must show up, play well, and beat the Hoosiers, but this is hardly a stressful game for anyone in the Michigan State program.

Wisconsin vs Illinois:  The Illini have been downright pathetic so far this year, and I think the Badgers have a great opportunity to rebound and get back in the Leaders division race.

Purdue vs Michigan: It's hard to say that Team A is better than Team B because they had a closer loss to Team C, but Purdue did a much better job against Notre Dame than the Wolverines did, and I think there's a lot of momentum in the Boilermakers' program as they realize just how big an opportunity they've been given to take the Leaders division this year.
Top 25 rundown: 
Bold print denotes winner 
#2 Oregon vs #23 Washington
#3 Florida State at North Carolina State
#4 LSU at #10 Florida
#5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina
#7 Kansas State vs Kansas
#8 West Virginia at #11 Texas
#9 Notre Dame vs Miami (FL)
#12 Ohio State vs #21 Nebraska
#13 USC at Utah
#15 Clemson vs Georgia Tech
#15 TCU vs Iowa State
#17 Oklahoma at Texas Tech
#18 Stanford vs Arizona
#20 Mississippi State at Kentucky
#22 Rutgers vs Connecticut
#24 Northwestern at Penn State
#25 UCLA at California

Game of the Week: The most important game on so many levels, with more division, conference, and national title implications than any other, my pick for game of the week is Georgia at South Carolina.

Most overrated team: Still Oregon State.  It was nice to see them beat Arizona, but do they really deserve to be in the top 15?  I don't think so.

Most underrated team: I think it's Northwestern.  Obviously this week is a massive test for the Wildcats, but Northwestern is playing good football right now.

My Heisman top 5:
1.Geno Smith, West Virginia QB: 10 TD passes and 8 incompletions in one game?  That's just silly.  He'll need assistance from his defense to stay in front in this race.
2. Collin Klein, Kansas State QB: Klein's stats should be a little more gaudy this week against a soft Kansas defense.  If he wants this award, K-State needs to win out.
3. EJ Manuel, Florida State QB: Manuel didn't play as well last week, but he didn't need to.  The Seminoles should roll again this week against NC State.  
4. Aaron Murray, Georgia QB: Put up or shut up time for Murray.  If he can lead the Bulldogs to a win on the road against a top 10 team, he'll move up. 
5. Braxton Miller, Ohio State QB: The sophomore showed toughness and resiliency in leading the Buckeyes to a close win at Michigan State.  He's the heart and soul of Ohio State's offense.  


More to Prove: Johnathan Franklin, De'Anthony Thomas, Sammy Watkins
Darkhorses: Manti Teo, Jarvis Jones, Rex Burkhead, Taylor Martinez

Husker NFL MVP week 4:
Lavonte David of Tampa Bay made 14 tackles (12 unassisted and 3 TFLs) in a last second loss to the Redskins last Sunday and therefore he gets the nod.  David has been impressive as a rookie starter for the Bucs, and he has a bright future in the NFL. 


That wraps up this week's preview.  Every weekend seems more and more important to the Huskers' title hopes, and even though I'm picking the Buckeyes this week, I will not be even a little bit disappointed if the Huskers pull off the win.  Thanks for reading!


Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Coastal Cornhusker Rankings: Week 6

Loyal readers no doubt noticed that I haven't made any effort to supply my own rankings so far this season, like most writers do.  That doesn't mean I don't have opinions, but I just think that teams need about five games under their belt before we know a whole lot about them.  I'll start with the standard top 25, and then move onto Big Ten rankings.

TOP 25:

Criteria: Win/loss record, level of competition, expectation for success, and most importantly, would they beat the teams in front of them on a neutral field.

AP rank in parentheses

#1 Alabama (1)
#2 Oregon (2)
#3 Georgia (5)
#4 Florida State (3)
#5 LSU (4)
#6 Kansas State (7)
#7 Florida (10)
#8 Texas (11)
#9 Notre Dame (9)
#10 South Carolina (6)
#11 West Virginia (8)
#12 USC (13)
#13 Oklahoma (17)
#14 TCU (15)
#15 Clemson (15)
#16 Ohio State (12)
#17 Nebraska (21)
#18 Stanford (18)
#19 Oregon State (14)
#20 Cincinnati (NR)
#21 Rutgers (22)
#22 Michigan State (NR)
#23 Lousiana Tech (NR)
#24 Louisville (19)
#25 Boise State (NR)

*I think numbers 3-6 are fairly interchangeable at this point, but Florida-LSU, Georgia-South Carolina, and West Virginia-Texas are going to resolve things quite a bit this weekend.
*Notre Dame has earned a higher ranking, but I just can't do it
*If West Virginia can't find a defense, they're never going to be in my top 10; top 10 teams don't allow 63 points to anyone
*I have Oklahoma ranked so high because Bob Stoops shouldn't lose another Big 12 game this year
*17 is maybe a little too high for Nebraska, but they have a chance to earn it this week
*I'm not sold on Oregon State yet, but that will change with more winning
*3 Big East teams is probably too many to rank, but they're all undefeated and they will sort it out among themselves as the season goes on.  None will get into my top 15 unless they go undefeated.
*I want to rank Ohio, but they can't put bad teams away on the road, so I just can't do it
*With two BCS pelts on the wall (Illinois and Virginia) Louisiana Tech is probably the best unranked team out there, so I'm showing them some love
*I'm not going to penalize Michigan State too harshly for a loss to a ranked team on the road.  I think they could beat most of the teams ranked ahead of them on any given Saturday

Big Ten

Legends:
1. Nebraska (4-1, 1-0)
2. Northwestern (5-0, 1-0)
3. Iowa (2-2, 1-0)
4. Michigan (2-2, 0-0)
5. Michigan State (3-2, 0-1)
6. Minnesota (4-1, 0-1)

Leaders:
1. Ohio State (5-0, 1-0)
2. Penn State (3-2, 1-0)
3. Purdue (4-1, 0-0)
4. Wisconsin (3-2, 0-1)
5. Illinois (2-3, 0-1)
6. Indiana (2-2, 0-1)

Power Rankings:
1. Ohio State: The highest ranked team gets the nod.  The Buckeyes feel like their biggest test of the season is already over after beating Michigan State, but Bucky better not sleep on the Huskers this weekend.

2. Nebraska: The Huskers have a great opportunity to take the top spot and set themselves ahead in the Big 10 race with win over Ohio State on Saturday.  With Ohio State's postseason ban, the Big Ten is Nebraska's to lose at this point.

3. Michigan State: The two losses aside, Michigan State as the best defense in the league and Sparty will go as far as his pathetic offense will take him.

4. Purdue: Purdue is a trendy pick to win the Leaders this year with Ohio State and Penn State unable to; if the Boilers win this week against Michigan, I'll believe it.

5. Michigan: The deflating beatdown against Alabama and the listless showing against Notre Dame have Wolverine fans feeling pretty uneasy as the Wolverines open Big 10 play with a trip to Purdue.  Michigan is still talented enough to win the Legends, but they need better consistency on both sides of the ball.

6. Penn State: Bill O'Brien has the Nittany Lions rolling right now.  His offense looked pretty good against Illinois, and he'll need them to perform as well against a Northwestern team that has as good a shot as anyone at cracking his tough defense.

7. Northwestern: The Wildcats are undefeated, but there's still an air of disbelief around this team.  If they can take the next step and beat Big Ten monarch Penn State in Beaver Stadium, the Wildcats will shoot up 3 or 4 spots on this list.

8. Wisconsin: If the Badgers play like they did in the first half against Nebraska, they'll win the Leaders division, but if they play the way they did in the second half, they'll be tied for third.

9. Iowa: The Hawkeyes were dead in the water until their surprising rout of unbeaten Minnesota last weekend.  Perhaps all is not lost, but there is still much to prove.

10. Minnesota: The Gophers' promising start unraveled in a sloppy first half in Iowa City.  Minnesota still needs 3 wins to get to a bowl, Iowa was one of their easier opportunities and now the Gophers probably need an upset or two to get more than a win against Illinois.

11. Illinois: Tim Beckman's team paid for their active recruiting of former Penn State players with a 35-7 thrashing at the hands of the Nittany Lions.  Sadly, that was one of the easier remaining games for the woebegone Illini.

12. Indiana: The bottom spot will likely belong to the Hoosiers until their Oct 27th tilt with Illinois, then Indiana has a chance to make a slight jump.